Wednesday, November 30, 2022
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Market Replace – August 11 – USD & Yields tank, Shares rally as US CPI cools


USDIndex tanked to 104.50 from 106.20, earlier than recovering, Yields & the VIX dropped to 4 mth lows and Shares rallied (NASDAQ +2.89%, now +20% from June lows). Cooler US CPI was the catalyst and expectations the FED is much less more likely to have to lift charges by 75 bp in September. Asian markets adopted by way of too, (Cling Seng +2.08%,  Nikkei closed). European FUTS additionally greater. Oil pushed as much as the $92 deal with, Gold sank to $1786 and BTC moved greater once more to breach $24K space. 

Fedspeak – voiced warning – Kashkari now a BIG HAWK talked of being “far, distant from declaring victory over inflation” and needs no less than one other 140 bp this 12 months and sees charges topping at 4.4% in 2023, Evans (centrist  sees charges at 3.4% by December and Daly “not wherever close to accomplished with inflation battle”. Cleveland Fed – “inflationary pressures stay broad primarily based”.

  • USDIndex plunged -1.6% as broad primarily based USD promoting took maintain. Extra hawkish Fed feedback helped carry the index to 105.20 now. AUD underperformed in Asian session.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed up 87.77pts (+2.13%) (4210), US500FUTS at 4227 now. DIS Large beat, Disney+ larger than NETFLIX! & will increase costs from December – Shares up 3.98% on Wednesday & 6.85% after hours. Large tech all closed up 2%+.
  • Yields 10-year yield sank however recovered to 2.78% at shut. The two/10yr. yield curve additionally remained firmly inverted at 43.8 bp.  
  • Oil – rallied to check 200-hr MA at $92.00, holds the zone now.  
  • Gold – rallied & spiked to $1800 resistance once more earlier than declining again below to assist at $1788, 20-day MA now $1766.
  • Bitcoin has surged to $24.5K now from $22.6k lows yesterday.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD breached 1.0350 trades at 1.0300, USDJPY tanked from 135.00 pivot to 132.00 again to 132.70 now and Cable did the identical rallying from 1.2080, pivot to 1.2260 resistance & again to 1.2215 now. 

 8.5% y/y.

As we speak – US Weekly Claims & PPI, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, Banxico Coverage Announcement.

Largest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.51%). Restoration from spike decrease yesterday continues, again to 0.6040 now from 0.5945.  MAs aligning greater,  MACD histogram now constructive & sign line impartial, RSI 61.57 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00080, Each day ATR 0.00558.

 

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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